In a major exercise in geopolitical scheming, French President Emmanuel Macron was instrumental in the recent elections for the African Union Commission, which resulted in Kenyan politician Raila Odinga’s shocking loss.
According to diplomatic sources, Macron rallied support among Francophone African countries, asking them to support Djibouti’s nominee instead. Macron emphasized the value of close connections with Djibouti and other French-speaking nations during lengthy talks with several African heads of state.
Djibouti, which is home to one of France’s military installations in Africa, is of great interest to the country. His lobbying efforts significantly changed the electoral picture by securing a unified vote in favor of Djibouti’s nominee from all Francophone countries.
Arab states were aggressively wooing nations with a majority of Muslims at the same time, urging them to back Djibouti as well.
According to accounts, Arab countries provided financial incentives for development projects in exchange for votes, which greatly improved the Djibouti candidate’s prospects.
According to people familiar with the matter, lobbying effort increased in the weeks preceding the election, with Arab countries building a significant presence in Addis Ababa.
To persuade countries that were still on the fence, promises of support for the new chair were given, subject to victory. Although roughly 33 countries had promised to support Raila when he entered the contest, his support eventually dropped to just 22 countries, which resulted in his defeat in the seventh round of voting.
This unexpected result calls into question both the larger geopolitical realities in Africa and Kenya’s future influence within the AUC.
As the clock runs out for the 2027 elections, Raila’s defeat is probably going to lead to domestic political realignments. Experienced politician Raila lost to Ali Youssouf of Djibouti on Saturday in a close election that demoralized Raila’s main political supporters.
President William Ruto and his inner circle were also shaken by the surprise defeat, as they had wanted to use Raila’s triumph to boost their own reelection campaign.
On Saturday, Ruto’s team was clearly shaken in Addis Ababa. Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi advised Raila not to answer questions from reporters during a news conference.
Taking back Raila’s political roots would be Ruto’s most reliable path to power after 2027, as he has largely lost the vote in Mount Kenya.
Raila’s loss, according to some analysts, could help Ruto consolidate control, but it also raises the possibility that the former prime minister would join forces with his opposition colleagues to try to limit Ruto to one term as president.
The defeat occurs at a time when the Ruto and Raila teams in Parliament are already at odds. This comes after Moses Wetang’ula, the speaker of the National Assembly, threw out a court ruling that deemed Azimio the majority party in Parliament.
Political tension may increase as a result of Azimio’s threat to impeach Wetang’ula, a Kenya Kwanza principal. In portions of Kisumu, a region that had welcomed Ruto following his agreement with Raila, cries of “Ruto must go” filled the air.
However, Peter Kaluma, the MP for Homa Bay Town, asserts that ODM needs to now formally interact with the administration.
The continental election intensified Kenya’s ethnic politics, even though the majority of prominent political figures supported Raila for the top AU position.
For example, some portions of Mount Kenya, which now firmly supports former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, hailed Raila’s defeat. However, Gachagua had openly supported Raila for the position.
Raila has been requested to return and lead the party, according to ODM insiders.
If Raila had won, he would have been immediately eliminated from consideration in the 2027 election because the AUC chair has a four-year term that is renewable once.
Talks about Raila’s succession and whether he might have won the seat had already taken center stage, with prominent figures vying for his position.
Ruto, Raila’s new friend, supported his candidacy and made an effort to win, but it didn’t work out.
After winning the first two rounds of voting in Addis, Raila lost the remaining three to Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, a candidate from Djibouti.
