It’s no secret that the country’s 2027 elections will be influenced by former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s defeat in the race to become chair of the African Union Commission.
In an election held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Saturday, veteran politician Raila lost to Ali Youssouf of Djibouti.
The former prime minister, a seasoned politician and a clever organizer, has the support of important constituencies in the nation, which might help a candidate win in 2027.
If Raila had won the election, he would have exited the local scene, which would have created a hole and led to realignments and alignments.
In response to Raila’s defeat on Saturday, many Kenyans urged the former prime minister to go back home and get involved in local politics.
According to analysts, the ODM leader would probably respond to these appeals and assume leadership of the organization where he left off.
If Raila had won, he would have been immediately eliminated from consideration in the 2027 election because the AUC chair has a four-year term that is renewable once.
Talks about Raila’s succession and whether he might have won the seat had already taken center stage, with prominent figures vying for his position.
Raila’s new ally, President William Ruto, supported his candidacy and worked tirelessly to make sure he won, but that did not happen.
According to political analysts, Ruto’s backing of Raila was a component of a larger strategic plan to remove Raila from the local scene and placate his base of supporters so that he could inherit the seat if he wins.
Pundits claimed that Raila’s bases were meant to make up for Ruto’s “lost” Mt. Kenya vote basket.
Ruto would have been well served by Raila’s strong support base in replacing the unrest-plagued Mount Kenya region, which feels deceived by the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Ruto may have gained an advantage over his rivals by supporting Raila because it is thought that he expected his support in 2027.
Following a purported political agreement between Ruto and the former prime minister, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who has been eager to win Raila’s support, is looking for new allies within the opposition.
In November of last year, Ruto signaled their political agreement by striking a pose while speaking to a large crowd in Kondele, Kisumu county.
Instead of getting entangled in the politics of any one member state, Raila would have been expected to maintain his objectivity and concentrate on continental concerns, coordinating the commission’s work, carrying out decisions, and representing Africa at international fora if he had been elected chair of the AUC.
However, after losing, Raila would probably go back to local politics, which would upset Ruto, young Turks, and old guards eager to take over his political base.
If the former prime minister decides to run for the nation’s top job again, he might ruin the celebration but also play the kingmaker role for whoever he supports.
Ruto and other influential figures in the elections might be made or broken by Raila’s return to local politics, according to political observers.
Bigambo stated that although Raila might not leave Ruto, he would utilize his ODM party—which he hopes would flourish—to bargain for favors.
Raila comes as a bundle to anyone he supports, according to political analyst Mark Bichachi, with other “small regional kingpins” who are essential to winning the elections.
Even while he considers the position, Raila has stated that stabilizing Kenya was his top concern.
For more than 30 years, Raila has dominated Kenyan politics and was once referred to as an enigma.
He has a sizable fan base in his native Nyanza, as well as in Western, Nairobi, Northeastern, and Coast regions—important vote baskets that could impact the results of the 2027 elections.
