Why Trump’s Policies Signal a Turning Point for Kenya-U.S. Relations.
Newly signed executive orders by U.S. President Donald Trump could have far-reaching consequences for Kenya and the African continent.
Among these, a critical order suspends new foreign aid from the U.S. for 90 days, pending reviews to evaluate the effectiveness of existing policies and their alignment with Trump’s foreign agenda.
The executive order argued that foreign aid and bureaucratic processes were often misaligned with U.S. interests and values, raising concerns for African nations heavily reliant on U.S. support. Trump emphasized his vision for a stronger America, stating that the nation would no longer allow itself to be taken advantage of.
While the White House did not specify the exact implications for foreign operations, analysts expect significant disruptions for NGOs and international organizations operating in Africa.
Back home, foreign policy experts remain skeptical about the extent to which Trump will reverse the gains established under President Biden’s administration.
Economic and Social Aid Implications
The Aid Data Network estimates U.S. government aid contributes approximately $1.68 billion (Ksh.252 billion) annually to Kenya, including $1 billion (Ksh.129.4 billion) in direct aid.
The U.S. has been a major benefactor to international organizations such as the United Nations and the World Health Organization, meaning Trump’s aid suspension could have substantial economic and social ramifications for Kenya.
Foreign policy analyst Prof. Macharia Munene highlighted that any social aid lacking economic returns is at risk of being discontinued.
He noted that while Trump may seek to reduce certain aid programs, economic agreements between Kenya and the U.S. may endure due to their mutual benefits. Similarly, Gordon K’acholla emphasized that Trump’s administration is likely to revisit economic agreements sidelined by Biden, which could reshape the bilateral relationship.
| Category | Annual Contribution |
|---|---|
| Direct Aid | $1 billion |
| Total U.S. Aid | $1.68 billion |
Climate Change Policy Reversal
Another executive order saw Trump directing the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. This decision undercuts global efforts to address climate change and reduces climate funding for Africa and Kenya.
Trump’s approach, symbolized by his “drill, baby, drill” mantra, suggests a return to prioritizing fossil fuels. K’acholla expressed concern over this policy reversal, warning it could have dire implications for the global south, which is already disproportionately affected by climate change.
Immigration Policies and Birthright Citizenship
Trump’s immigration directives, including the end of birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants, have also sparked fears. Foreign policy experts believe these measures could lead to the deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants, though implementation may face legal challenges.
Prof. Munene opined that the judicial system is unlikely to support violations of constitutional protections for individuals born in the U.S.
Trump’s insistence on stricter immigration policies has created unease among immigrant communities, with concerns over potential enforcement measures. However, experts argue these actions will take time to materialize and may encounter significant opposition.
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Impacts on U.S.-Kenya Relations
Trump’s orders may also influence agreements established under President Ruto and former U.S. President Joe Biden. Key sectors, including infrastructure development and Kenya’s designation as a major non-NATO ally, could face uncertainty. While economic ties remain crucial, analysts argue that Trump’s policies reflect a broader realignment of U.S. priorities on the global stage.
In summary, the executive orders signed by President Trump are poised to impact Kenya and Africa across various sectors, from foreign aid and climate policy to immigration and bilateral agreements. The long-term effects of these changes will depend on the specifics of their implementation and the responses of affected nations and organizations.
