Matiang’i’s 2027 Presidential Bid in Jeopardy as Gachagua Moves to Block Him — Lee Makwiny

Matiang’i’s 2027 Presidential Bid in Jeopardy as Gachagua Moves to Block Him — Lee Makwiny

Political tensions within Kenya’s united opposition appear to be deepening, with revelations suggesting that Fred Matiang’i’s 2027 presidential ambitions may be on the brink of collapse. Political analyst Lee Makwiny has disclosed that Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s actions and influence are creating significant obstacles for Matiang’i, threatening the fragile coalition’s unity ahead of the next general election.

In his recent political commentary, Makwiny dissected a report indicating that Matiang’i’s allies have threatened to quit the united opposition, citing disrespect and marginalization by Gachagua. The analyst described the situation as a “brewing political storm” that could determine whether the opposition remains strong enough to challenge President William Ruto in 2027.

“Gachagua does not recognize Matiang’i as a potential presidential contender,” Makwiny explained. “He views him merely as someone who can serve as a Prime Cabinet Secretary, not a national leader capable of uniting the opposition.”

According to Makwiny, the standoff between the two figures reflects deeper political insecurities within the opposition. While Matiang’i’s camp insists that he is tested, proven, and ready to lead, Gachagua reportedly believes that Matiang’i’s political base is limited to the Gusii region, making his national appeal questionable.

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The Uhuru Kenyatta Factor

A key source of friction, according to Makwiny, is the involvement of former President Uhuru Kenyatta. Matiang’i is widely perceived to have Uhuru’s backing, which has made Gachagua increasingly uneasy. The analyst argued that Gachagua views Uhuru’s continued presence in opposition politics as a threat to his control of the Mt. Kenya voting bloc.

Over the past weekend, Matiang’i attended the burial of Peter Munya’s grandmother in Meru alongside Uhuru’s close allies — a move Makwiny interpreted as a clear signal of political alignment. Meanwhile, the rest of the opposition leaders attended a joint meeting that Matiang’i conspicuously skipped.

“This was not a coincidence,” Makwiny noted. “Matiang’i’s association with Uhuru’s team sends a strong message that the two are working together — and that’s exactly what Gachagua fears.”

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Battle for the 2027 Presidential Ticket

At the heart of the growing tension lies the question of who should be the opposition’s presidential flagbearer. Gachagua is said to favor Kalonzo Musyoka, arguing that his seniority and established voter base in the Eastern region make him a safer choice. Gachagua also reportedly sees strategic benefit in supporting Kalonzo now and positioning himself as a future presidential contender.

Matiang’i’s allies, however, believe that public opinion polls favor their candidate, claiming that the former Interior CS enjoys stronger national appeal and could outperform Kalonzo in a head-to-head scenario. This unresolved rivalry has left the opposition fractured and uncertain of its direction less than two years before the polls.

“The choice of a presidential candidate will make or break this coalition,” Makwiny warned. “If they fail to agree on a unified ticket, President Ruto will have an easy path to re-election.”

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Control of the Mt. Kenya Vote

Gachagua’s political strategy, as outlined by Makwiny, revolves around maintaining dominance in the Mt. Kenya region. He reportedly fears that if Matiang’i — backed by Uhuru — gains influence through the revival of Jubilee Party or a new political formation, his control over the region’s legislators and governors will weaken.

“For Gachagua’s political survival, he needs as many MPs, governors, and MCAs from Mt. Kenya as possible,” Makwiny said. “A strong Matiang’i- Uhuru alliance threatens that base.”

This explains Gachagua’s resistance to Matiang’i’s rise within the opposition. Supporting a leader linked to Uhuru could, in his view, revive the very forces that once sidelined him during the Kenyatta administration.

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Analyst’s Conclusion

Despite the growing tensions, Lee Makwiny cautioned that quitting the united opposition would be a political mistake for Matiang’i. He urged the former CS to consider compromise, suggesting that serving as a running mate could be a more viable path for now.

“For Matiang’i, walking away would isolate him politically,” he concluded. “He should stay in the coalition, negotiate for influence, and keep his options open for the future.”

As 2027 approaches, it remains unclear whether the opposition can overcome its internal divisions and mount a serious challenge to President Ruto. But one thing is certain — the battle between Fred Matiang’i and Rigathi Gachagua could redefine Kenya’s political landscape in the coming years.

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Matiang’i’s 2027 Presidential Bid in Jeopardy as Gachagua Moves to Block Him — Lee Makwiny